June 25, 2022

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Putin’s Ukraine Invasion Is About Energy and Natural Resources

1 min read

Much of the current analysis of Russia’s war on Ukraine accepts at face value Moscow’s stated premises for the invasion. Vladimir Putin claimed from the beginning that his special military action was a determined attempt to reunite the old Russo-Ukrainian territorial and ethnic communities under his rule. Some in the West have even bought into his gripe that years of North American Treaty Organization expansion threatened Russian territorial integrity.

The prevailing narrative now is that Mr. Putin has foolishly overreached: The Ukrainians fought harder than he expected and his forces have bogged down due to poor command structures and lack of basic operational controls. He has had to learn the hard way about information asymmetries because no one tells a dictator the whole truth. The West, according to the narrative, needs to provide him with a peace process: Ukraine guarantees it won’t try to join NATO and Moscow absorbs Donetsk and Luhansk—as well as what’s left of Mariupol—into Mother Russia.

2022-04-05 18:08:00

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