September 27, 2023

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Peso likely to climb as dollar’s weakness persists on Fed bets

2 min read

THE PESO could strengthen this week on expectations of continued dollar weakness amid the release of several US economic reports that could reinforce bets of a pause in the US Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.

The local currency closed at P54.40 versus the dollar on Wednesday, appreciating by 9.50 centavos from Tuesday’s P54.495 finish, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines’ website showed.

Meanwhile, week on week, the peso depreciated by four centavos from its P54.36 close on March 31.

Philippine financial markets are closed from April 6-10 for non-working days in observance of Holy Week and the Day of Valor.

For this week, the peso could strengthen on expectations of a weaker dollar, Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said in a report.

“Dollar weakness will persist as the recent slew of US economic data, led by several inflation measures as the policy lag effects of the Fed’s cumulative rate hikes last year take hold, suggests the US Fed may opt to end their tightening cycle soon,” Mr. Asuncion said.

“Our traders expect this run of rapid Fed rate hikes may soon end, and with it, the beginning of the end of a historic dollar bull run,” he added.

With other major central banks expected to continue hiking rates, this could result in more downward pressure for the dollar, Mr. Asuncion said.

Meanwhile, a trader said that peso-dollar trading this week could be affected by US jobs data released last week.

US Treasury yields and the dollar climbed in an abbreviated session on Friday after employment data for March indicated the labor market remained tight last month, raising the odds that the Federal Reserve has at least one more rate hike in store, Reuters reported.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs last month, the Labor department said, very close to the 239,000 expected by economists surveyed by Reuters.

Data for February was revised higher to show 326,000 jobs were added instead of…


2023-04-09 09:00:36

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