March 28, 2023

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Odds of falling home prices in 392 housing markets

2 min read

Historically speaking, home prices rarely decline on a year-over-year basis. Unless economics forces sellers’ hands, they usually won’t pull back.

Of course, we’ve recently seen the U.S. housing market slip into one of those rare periods where national home prices are indeed falling—with U.S. home prices down 2.5% between June and November—and just months away from seeing home values negative on a year-over-year basis for the first time since the housing crash bottomed in 2012.

What’s going on? The mad rush of demand during the Pandemic Housing Boom, which saw U.S. home prices soar 41% between March 2020 and June 2022, coupled with last year’s historic mortgage shock, has “pressurized” housing affordability. Some would-be homebuyers are priced out, while millions of other borrowers—who must meet lenders’ strict debt-to-income ratios—have lost mortgage eligibility entirely. That sharp pullback in housing demand has translated into falling home values.

The big question heading forward is will the home price correction soon fizzle out or carry on?

To better understand where regional home prices might go this year, Fortune reached out to CoreLogic to see if the firm would provide us with its January assessment of the nation’s largest regional housing markets. To determine the likelihood of regional home prices dropping, CoreLogic assessed factors like income growth projections, unemployment forecasts, consumer confidence, debt-to-income ratios, affordability, mortgage rates, and inventory levels. Then CoreLogic put regional housing markets into one of five categories, grouped by the likelihood that home prices in that particular market will fall between November 2022 and November 2023.

Here are the groupings the real estate research firm used for the January analysis:

  • Very high: Over 70% chance of home prices falling between November 2022 and November 2023
  • High: 50%–70% chance
  • Medium: 40%–50%…

Lance Lambert

2023-02-04 15:23:23

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