September 27, 2023

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IMF hikes Philippine growth outlook

2 min read

By Keisha B. Ta-asan, Reporter

WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Philippines to post the fastest growth in emerging and developing Asia this year, despite a global economic slowdown.

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released here on Tuesday morning, the IMF raised its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the Philippines to 6%, from the 5% forecast given in January.

This would be slower than the 7.6% GDP expansion in 2022 but matched the lower end of the government’s 6-7% target for this year.

Based on IMF projections, the Philippines’ 6% GDP growth outlook is the fastest among emerging and developing Asia economies. It is faster than India (5.9%), China (5.2%), Vietnam (5.8%), Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.5%) and Thailand (3.4%).

However, the multilateral lender also lowered its 2024 growth projection for the Philippines to 5.8%, from 6% previously.  The government targets 6.5-8% GDP growth for 2024.

In the WEO report, the IMF said high uncertainty continues to cloud the global economic outlook this year, citing downside risks from central banks’ tight monetary stance, high debt levels, limited fiscal buffers, commodity price spikes and geopolitical tensions.

“But these forces are now overlaid by and interacting with new financial stability concerns. A hard landing — particularly for advanced economies — has become a much larger risk. Policymakers may face difficult trade-offs to bring sticky inflation down and maintain growth while also preserving financial stability,” the IMF said.   

The IMF trimmed its global growth forecast for 2023 to 2.8% (from the 2.9% given in January) and for 2024 to 3% (from 3.1%). If realized, this will be slower than the 3.4% global expansion in 2022.

In a “plausible alternative scenario” with further financial sector stress, the IMF said global growth may decline to around 2.5% in 2023.

The IMF sees emerging and developing Asia expanding by 5.3% this…


2023-04-11 12:35:03

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