Why Tuesday’s big stock-market bounce left one chart watcher unconvinced

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A beaten down and oversold stock market bounced back sharply Tuesday, producing one of the strongest advances of the year, but one chart watcher isn’t convinced the move means bulls have put the worst behind them.

“The percentage of positive volatility alerts (violent buying) reached almost 7%, well below the 2016 level, but well above the response seen after the February lows of this year,” said Jeff deGraaf, chairman of Renaissance Macro Research, in a note ahead of Wednesday’s opening bell. “That may be an indication of blue‐skies ahead, but we’re dubious.”

The technician said the price action puts the S&P 500’s














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 50-day moving average in focus as the next resistance level. The average stands just shy of 2,873, according to FactSet.

Renaissance Macro


Stocks certainly didn’t showing much follow-through on Wednesday, ending slightly lower after the Dow Jones Industrial Average














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at one point gave up more than 300 points before trimming losses. The blue-chip gauge closed nearly 550 points higher on Tuesday, marking a 2.2% gain, a percentage rise matched by the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite














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 advanced 2.9%.

It was the biggest one-day percentage gain for all three since March 26. Stocks suffered a steep selloff last week and the S&P 500 is off around 3.8% in October, cutting its year-to-date gain to around 4.9%.

Reasons to doubt the staying power of the rebound include the observation that while the ratio of advancing stocks to decliners was 5:1 on Tuesday, overall volumes contracted, de Graaf said. More important, advance/decline volume flows were actually a little lighter during the session, “suggesting that there was little disproportionate demand for stocks through the channel of volume.”

“We were oversold enough to bounce, but neither sentiment nor the volume flush were convincing,” he said.

2018-10-17 13:35:00

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