Major Market Ranges for Week of Nov. 10: Breakouts, Bears & Reversals

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Here are next week’s predicted ranges by Trevor Smith.

Range math for next week supports breakouts and trending market behavior for toppy S&P 500 futures, the Japanese yen and crude oil.

Gold is in an extreme low price with reversal signs, but trending monthly pivots in an engulfing setup fosters the trade idea of joining the downside breakout, instead of trying to pick a low reversal, even though it appears to be on their lows. The euro is another “extreme low price” symbol with reversal signs for early next week, except the quarterly pivots show breakout math that could prevail bearishly over any up-reversal signs. I especially like the euro’s supportive 50-day moving average; However, I won’t lead traders into fighting trending pivot/range math in heroic hopes of nailing a low.

In this closing week, seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of Thursday night. Option spread trades varied (4/6 underlying symbols exceeded strike prices in winning directions) and the long reversal Japanese yen trade uses monthly expirations with an entry now or lower.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range: 3117-3108; Low Range 3049-3028

Buy 3070/3065, 3065/3060 Weekly put spreads; Rationale: Bearish/negatively divergent understudies, price at extreme values over a multitude of high reversal pivots

Japanese Yen

High Range 9262-9232; Low Range 9160-9128  

Sell 9175/9150 put spread 9200/9175 if it rallies before readers see this using weekly/monthly options to trade toward weekly pivot, bullish reversal signs in upward-adjusted weekly range that may continue downwards

Euro FX

High Range 1.115-1.111; Low Range 1.106-1.103

Sell 1.105/1.1 weekly put spread. Rationale: bullish divergence in understudies; weekly pivot overhead  

Gold

High Range $1496-$1486; Low Range $1465-$1452

Sell $1475/1470 weekly put spread. Rationale: weekly pivot overhead but trade small, as it broke to lower low from longstanding narrow range in breakout attempt that may continue downwards

Crude Oil

High Range $5820-$5724; Low Range $5600-$5515

Buy $57/5650 put spread weekly. Rationale: Weekly range midpoint below in bearish technical on daily chart with bear candle series line on volume spikes.

(Note: This article is published mid-day on Fridays and focuses on weekly options expiring the following Friday but may include monthly options or two-week calendar/diagonal option spreads at times. I consider my week’s range accuracy from Friday p.m. publishing until next Friday a.m. as Trevor’s week for purposes of being aligned with potential weekly option trades placed Fri-Wed.)

Last Week’s Projected Ranges vs. Actuals as of Thu. 9:00 p.m. CST

E-mini S&P 500

High Range: 3075-3060; Low Range 3014-3002

Actual: 3097-3063 (3033 Fri. p.m., Nov. 1 after publishing)

Buy 3055/3050 Weekly put spreads; Rationale: Bearish/negatively divergent McClellan Oscillator Daily chart, negative divergence weekly chart’s understudies making lower highs versus market’s higher highs; 2981 monthly floor pivot, 3045 weekly pivot.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9348-9317; Low Range 9255-9234 

Actual: 9263-9151

Sell 9300/9275 call spread to scalp coming stops-run on bulls’ trades; reverse position to 9275/9300 short put spread weekly/monthly. Rationale: Volatility, Bullish 3-day chart, breakout engulfing weekly pivots on moving average support.

Euro FX

High Range1.124-1.119; Low Range 1.114-1.112

Actual: 1.120-1.106

Buy 1120/1117 call spread. Rationale: bearish understudies; weekly/monthly pivots below 1116-12 zone

Gold

High Range $1533-$1525; Low Range $1509-$1502

Actual: $1517-$1461

Sell $1515/1510 weekly and monthly put spreads into $1525 weekly high range and sell same weekly call spreads down to $1505 weekly pivot. Rationale: weekly bull chart hammer on moving average into monthly bearish highs; weekly pivot below

Crude Oil

High Range $5661-$5592; Low Range $5410-$5343

Actual: $5788-$5407 (Fri. p.m., Nov. 1 after publishing)

And Buy $55/5550 call spread weekly/monthly expirations. Rationale: Weekly pivot overhead currently (Fri. a.m.); monthly and weekly chart moving average supports.

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

2019-11-08 09:32:00

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