Here’s what mortgage ‘rate lock’ looks like, in one chart

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In 2017, MarketWatch documented many of the reasons there aren’t enough homes to buy. One of the most striking forces in the housing market right now is “rate lock,” the idea that homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates can’t bear to give up those loans and, in buying a new home, get stuck with a mortgage with a much higher rate.

Real estate data provider Black Knight shared data that illustrated the phenomenon. Among all homes listed for sale at that time, those with a mortgage that had a “5-handle,” a rate between 5.00 and 5.99%, were far more likely to be listed for sale than those with a 3-handle.

MarketWatch recently asked Black Knight for an update. The chart above shows the picture a year and a half later.

Also read: Americans are still shunning adjustable-rate mortgages 10 years after the crisis

In its October Mortgage Monitor, Black Knight notes that homes purchased with the lowest interest rates in history, are also likely to have been bargains, since that was a particularly iffy moment just after the housing crisis. “At the bottom of the market in 2012 the average U.S. home sold for $199K, while interest rates hit a low 3.35%,” Black Knight analysts wrote.

“The same home today would not only cost 50% more (nearly $300K), but the interest rate on the mortgage would also be >1.5% higher. The $741 monthly mortgage payment on that house in 2012 (assuming 20% down) would be $1,257 today, a 70% increase to purchase the same home.”

That’s why Black Knight refers to “affordability lock,” rather than using the popular term “rate lock.”

Also see: Accidental landlords — an unwelcome consequence of the housing market shock

2018-12-10 05:45:00

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